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Top websites list or something like that from PC Mag. I'm sure you'll find something useful. LONG LIVE TEH INTERWEBS

Flight of the Conchords

I'm not very big on TV, but I caught the first episode of this show last night. Hilarious.

New Technology

I'm not really that big of a fan of new technology the way I used to be. It's gotta be relative to my needs, of course...I've always had less-than-newish computer equipment and always really wanted something new, but I couldn't justify the cost in my head. Now that I've got a Pentium 4 with over 2 gigs of RAM, and some cool add-ons (decent video card, TV tuner card), I'm pretty content.

But then this post got me to thinking: it's not about the tech for me. And even the internet is, as Mark Cuban puts it, dead and boring. The true potential is only seen when some sort of "upgrade" makes new things possible, things you couldn't do before. I've never had 2 gigs of RAM (256MB max), so I've never been able to run Photoshop, edit sound or video, or play a newish game. And I really only bought my graphics card so I could play Civilization 4 (worth it, but like all games, only for a little while).

It does feel good to have that potential at your fingertips though...after I bought my graphics card (over a year ago), I got to watch video on my home computer, in decent quality, for the very first time. It unlocked that door for me, and thanks to the internet, I can watch pretty much anything available online.

But, in reference to the above post, the internet is very much dead and boring. But it's not really the internet's fault. It's the damn web. There's only so much you can do through a browser.

Why isn't my browser more of a television? No, I don't mean more mind-numbing - it could be a totally different application, totally different interface. It could push content onto my hard drive while I'm away at work, and I could come home, and "flip" through a few channels which I, along with the guidance of some "site" (though I hate the word because it has web connotations), choose. That'd be pretty cool.

Maybe I'm in the mood for some new music, or better yet, some new music videos...my musical tastes plus my appreciation of a certain director causes a video by XYZ to show up - maybe I'll rate it after I'm done watching it, improving the system and catering to my tastes. Most people would give up that data to a third party any day. It can show how popular an artist is, and maybe if creative works were licensed with a fair scheme, my favorite artist might get paid more if others appreciated it as much as I did.

If you want me to draw a conclusion about why this type of thing will never happen, well, there's no single right answer. Your ISP makes money by overselling bandwidth. They assume you're only using it in tiny, short bursts (web traffic), and they are pissed about the advent of p2p sharing, VoIP, and Youtube, all bandwidth-intensive applications. They can easily throttle traffic or cut you off completely if you're using more than your "fair share". And who are you going to turn to? They're the only game in town.

But who this really hurts is the music and movie industry. They're sitting on a brand-new content delivery system while they lose money to piracy and lose face by suing users who download and share music. People are growing accustomed to getting content when they want, and in a manner they want - and if it's easier to pirate it for free, they're going to do just that. On top of it all, look at how the movie industry treats their clients - if I buy a DVD for 20 bucks (or an HD-DVD for 35), I am FORCED to sit through commercials that I cannot bypass. If I download a copy of the same movie, I just get the movie!! Brilliant!!!

There's a dollar to be made in all of this...

Twins haters

Seriously, whoever is hating on the Twins right now needs to stop. It seems like everywhere I turn, I'm reading another article about how if the Twins young pitching improves, we can contend in a couple of years. Invariably, they also question why Torii Hunter is still on this team, when we could've traded him for a handful of magic beans which might turn into a baseball player someday.

Here's why: There's 34 games left. 7 of those games are against the division-leading Cleveland Indians. We're 5.5 games behind them. Why are people giving up and resigned to this future-talk? It's baseball - teams get hot, and you can never see it coming. Do you really think Morneau is going to have another HR slump like the one he broke last night? And that Mauer is going to hit under .300 forever? And that Rondell White is going to finish the season with only 1 HR? NO! Sure, we made a mistake by trading away Castillo, but we can overcome out shortsightedness! Keep the faith, y'all

Fantasy Draft

I'm pretty happy with how it turned out - Larry Johnson fell out of the heavens to me at #5, so he'd better be able to shoulder the load again this year. In draft order, here's who I ended up with:

Larry Johnson, RB
Steve Smith, WR
Carson Palmer, QB
Marion Barber III, RB
Anquan Boldin, WR
Ahman Green, RB
Joey Galloway, WR
Chester Taylor, RB
Ben Watson, TE
Jon Kitna, QB
Jaguars Defense
Greg Jennings, WR
Michael Turner, RB
David Akers, K
Matt Jones, WR
Jerramy Stevens, TE

Yeah, that's not too shabby at all. I couldn't let Taylor fall past the 7th round since he did so well for me, but I can't believe I took Watson after he burned me last year...all the other decent TEs were taken. Overall, I think I've got some good depth, especially at the 2 positions that require you to play 2 players (RB and WR). I shouldn't have taken Galloway so high though. And even though Tomlinson is a tough guy, Michael Turner is an awesome backup who would start on most other teams, so that has some potential.

Also

If you're a geek and haven't been reading XKCD (linked on the sidebar), your geek-card may be revoked. The past couple of weeks have produced some gems (today's isn't that great though).

And, in more "normal person" news...today is the day of the FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT. I'm picking 5th out of 12, which I'm actually not too psyched about - the top 3 (LT, Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson) will surely be gone, and I don't really like Frank Gore (fumbles) or Shaun Alexander (not the same since the injury and signing of Hutchinson by the Vikes). I'll probably go with Addai or Rudi Johnson, or I might reach and take Peyton with the pick. The draft is also reverse-order for every other round, so I get a middle pick about every time, which isn't all that bad I guess. I'll post my final roster this afternoon...

Thanks Reggie

For not allowing me to contemplate getting cable and NBA League Pass for my 13" TV. That would have been kinda embarrassing. Plus, I get to remember you as a Pacer forever, and not as a ring-chaser for the Celts...would've been fun to watch though.

Cool pics

Photos taken with and without Flash!

Awesome but geeky news

Okay, okay. You've all heard the big announcement today from Adobe, so let's just settle down a bit, shall we?

What big announcement? ARE YOU SERIOUS??

Okay, just kidding. Adobe's Flash Player now supports the H.264 codec (semantics aside, a codec basically is the type of compression a video uses - MPEG, DIVX, AVI are codecs more or less), which has been used by Apple for some time in their own Quicktime suite. If you download video from the iTunes store, it's encoded with H.264. And when Apple released the iPhone, they struck a deal with YouTube to provide content using the H.264 codec, instead of the crappy codec that is workable with Adobe's Flash Player 9.

So basically the content on YouTube could get a WHOLE LOT clearer, should they decide to flip the switch - watching YouTube full-screen might not be the pixellated nightmare it currently is. Sure, it's no DiVX (one of the best codecs out there), but it's definitely a step in the right direction. Hooray!!

Wow

Banks must actually be motivated to get on top of the online theft - I just got a call from mine within 15 minutes of placing an order online through Newegg (a reputable computer dealer), asking me to verify an amount that I normally shouldn't be spending on computer equipment. For the record, I needed 2 gigs of RAM, a 400 gig hard drive, and a TV-tuning card (since my actual TV is much smaller than my monitor). Total cost - about 200 bucks, which really isn't too bad, now that I think about it. I bought the cheapest available HD and RAM, and a TV-tuner which is a couple of steps above low-end. Seriously - why would I get one that doesn't have composite as well as coax inputs? I'm just doing my part to widen the analog hole, a term that sounds funny when you say it out loud. The same components would have cost me about twice that a year ago, especially considering my compy has DDR2 RAM.

Justification: I also want to start dabbling in sound and video editing (read: mashups) so I need the storage space plus RAM. I'll dish out some links when I have some material.

Copowi

Cool...an ISP that guarantees network neutrality. Looks like it's a bit more pricey, but well worth it for people who don't like being throttled down by Comcast. Available in MN, too! Looks like it's DSL, not cable. I might consider switching to them...

China Pig Virus

This kind of story really touches a nerve with me for some reason. A bunch of pigs in China have been infected with blue-ear disease. While this disease wasn't always a big deal, it's been spreading like wildfire, killing thousands of pigs, and the worry is that this disease has mutated into something far worse than originally thought. Great. We all know exactly where China lies on the food chain, right? (hint: 4th-largest exporter of live and slaughtered pigs)

China's silence on the matter is typical of the problems they've faced. Due to a fear of price-gouging (internally) and market backlash (externally), China is unwilling to provide tissue samples for international organizations who could help. They are almost willfully refusing to learn the rules of the marketplace, the rules of transparency that even the United States has trouble with (HELLO SUBPRIME MARKET HOW ARE YOU).

Or maybe I'm naive to think this - perhaps they're really learning from our ability to manipulate the marketplace with incorrect information, and are trying it themselves. Are we really as transparent as we claim to be? Of course not - but we've got much more cred than China - imagine a press release by the FDA as opposed to a release by XYZ Chinese regulatory body. Well, okay, I guess I wouldn't believe the FDA either, but they at least SEEM to have our national interest in mind, right? And that's the important thing.

The problem is, the pig disease problem is only going to spread until serious action is taken. Serious action can not be taken by the Chinese government alone until it addresses the full scope of this problem.

Again, I question my own thoughts on the matter - China likely cares less about the impact on the global market than the impact internally - I mean, a single outbreak like this can break illusions (delusions) of power, upon which an entire system of governance is constructed upon. More important to give the illusion of control, or more important to address the problem head-on? I won't even pretend to know the answer...but I know that this affects everyone - pigs know no boundaries!

Writing and confidence

So I'm in the middle of reviewing a proposal that we already made to a client. It'll be another feather in the cap when I'm done, but Wow.

I am now *so* much more confident in my own writing, it's sick. I know I shouldn't be saying this, but it's one of those situations where I really feel guilty that I can write well and I am not making use of it (unless you consider this blog a "use").

There's constant shift between active and passive voice in the proposal, run-on sentences, improper punctuation (surprisingly, a LACK of commas - most people like me use them TOO often!), and the thing that bugs me the most - sentences that make you feel DUMBER after you read them. I mean, make it concise - get to the point! Don't write for the sake of making words fill up the page with meaningless lead-ins like, "In the past, our experience has been that we provide the customer with X as a means of providing Y service"

Instead, try, "We propose/will do X because you requested Y, and here is why X works well"

I just made the example up, and I can't really do it justice, since writing style is VERY difficult to imitate, but you get the idea, hopefully.

That's why I like the writers that I do. Barnett and Robb, for example. Neither minces words or takes the reader on an unnecessary tangent. They get to the point, and let you sort out the details for yourself, which helps you to understand the subject even better, assuming you read a good deal. There's so much insight to read and a limited amount of time to do it - I don't want to waste my time with non-relevant info.

Also, I'm reading Black Swan by Nassim Taleb right now. Excellent book on probability and unforeseen events which will make you question your own perceptions of reality. I'm only 100 pages in, but already recommending it.

Got one

At least I think so - it's right behind the Wedge, on Harriet (EDIT: and when I say Harriet, I clearly mean Garfield) between Franklin and 22nd. Cool brownstone building, 1BR (as opposed to a studio, which had the potential of making me and Phyllis cramped and depressed), I probably overpaid for it, but I'm glad it's done. And I'm actually happy about the place too, I really do like it. It felt a little weird relying on myself solely for guidance on this - I'm so used to doing this with other people! Gave them security deposit plus application fee (which, in hindsight, was probably naive, but it's *so* close to the end of the month I thought I'd do it), and will be signing the lease tomorrow or the next day.

The place is pretty cool and fits me well (I hope) - it's larger than I really need, but has some interesting architecture and lots of little "alleys" for pacing. I always pace when I think - don't really know why.

I did look at several other places before deciding on this one, so I feel good about that. Places for less money were too tiny, and the other places for equal money were in worse shape or had other flaws.

I've also gotta start a shopping list - so MN folks who are looking to get rid of stuff (couches, chairs, tables, kitchen stuff, or anything really) should let me know. I'm actually pretty pumped about having a place that "all mine". I can finally buy another bookshelf, display all my own art, and run my own show, I guess. The apartment is all cleared out right now, and they said I can move in early, which is HUGE because I hate the B.S. "must be out by the 31st, and must wait until the 1st to move in" stuff. I mean seriously - WTF are people supposed to do? There ought to be a law...

Apartment search

This ish is WEAK. I called about a billion places yesterday though, and I'm looking at a couple of places today and tomorrow. I checked out one place yesterday that was completely ghetto sleazy. "garden level", next to the building's parking lot. I'm resigned to spending more than I want to, but that's just more incentive to ask for a raise, right? I can't live in a depresso place, especially if it's by myself. I'm taking on a happy-go-lucky attitude, and I have confidence that I'll find a good place either today or tomorrow. Hooray!

OLPC reviews

Well, the One Laptop Per Child project is on course. They've got a few models out in the wild, and I guess this might be a promising review...but a kid of that age (and socioeconomic background) is already computer literate, not exactly the target audience for the project. But I still think it's a wonderful project.

Oh, and here's a review written by a 12-year-old - sounds like a pretty favorable review - not as much power as a "normal" laptop...but sounds like he liked the applications. And it's very well-written for someone that age. Hell, it's better writing than most adults I know!

Financial Crisis

Okay, okay. So everyone around your water cooler has been discussing impending financial doom for the past few days. What gives? Well, when financial instability merges with the truth-telling power of CNN.com, it means all types of crazy crap is on the horizon. Let me help you make sense of it all.

First, read today's article by Paul Krugman. I've seen better writing from him, but this will do in a pinch.

What's been happening in financial markets over the past few days is something that truly scares monetary economists: liquidity has dried up. That is, markets in stuff that is normally traded all the time -- in particular, financial instruments backed by home mortgages -- have shut down because there are no buyers.

There's some confusing stuff later in the article - Bear Stearns? BNP Paribas?? WTF are those, right?

Well, to get you up to speed, there are some things you need to know. Remember LTCM (which Krugman also mentions in the article)? Of course not, wikipedia to the rescue:

Although success within the financial markets arises from immediate-short term turbulence, and the ability of fund managers to identify informational asymmetries, factors giving rise to the downfall of the fund were established prior to the 1997 East Asian financial crisis. However, in May and June 1998, net returns from the fund in May and June 1998 fell 6.42% and 10.14% respectively,reducing LTCM's capital by $461 million. This was further aggravated by the exit of Salomon Brothers from the arbitrage business in July 1998. Such losses were accentuated through the Russian Financial Crises in the August and September of 1998, when the Russian Government defaulted on their government bonds. Panicked investors sold Japanese and European bonds to buy U.S. treasury bonds. The profits that were supposed to occur as the value of these bonds converged became huge losses as the value of the bonds diverged, a quintessential Black Swan Event . By the end of August the fund had lost $1.85 billion in capital.

The company, which was providing annual returns of almost 40% up to this point, experienced a Flight-to-Liquidity. In the first 3 weeks of September LTCM's equity tumbled from $2.3 billion to $600 million without shrinking the portfolio, leading to a significant elevation of the already high leverage. Goldman Sachs, AIG and Berkshire Hathaway offered then to buy out the fund's partners for $250 million, to inject $4 billion and to operate LTCM within Goldman Sachs's own trading. The offer was rejected and the same day the Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized a bail-out of $3.625 billion by the major creditors to avoid a wider collapse in the financial markets.

LTCM was basically the first hedge fund to go down like a fiery inferno, but fortunately, this was the late 90s and the Fed was able to orchestrate a bailout. It also demonstrates one of my favorite Keynes quotes, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". My other favorite quote if his is, "In the long term, we are all dead".

Before I continue, I'd like to point out that 22 of the top 25 hedge funds (asset-wise, not leverage-wise) do not have wikipedia entries. Where's your information asymmetry NOW?? Oh yeah, someone's leveraging it against you as I type this!

But enough about the past, let's talk about now. So Bear Stearns is one of the largest financial movers and shakers in the world. 2 of their hedge funds got a wee bit carried away purchasing assets which were backed by subprime mortgages. Unfortunately for them, subprimes have a, ahem, less than prime return on investment - lots of defaults. So now everyone is afraid to take on the risk of the subprime market after this...well, guess what that does to people with subprime credit who want to buy a house? They can't get one! The housing market stagnates! OH NOES!!!

So what might happen? Well, we're afraid of debt, but China seems to love our companies for some reason (hint: Chinese companies learn not only from our mistakes, but also from our comparative transparency, which Chinese companies struggle with), and they are trying to buy part of Bear Stearns! Everyone loves China...well, except for protectionist politicians, but that's only like 98% of them anyway.

Well I started this blog entry in an attempt to inform you, and I have failed miserably. I just wound up ranting and piecing together incoherent arguments, didn't I? I just wasn't in the mood to write about this, but I felt like I had to say something, even if that "something" wound up being a bunch of random characters and links. Fortunately for you, loyal reader, there is much to read on this issue today, and I promise to have it all sorted out after the weekend.

Just read the Krugman article and check out the Times - sometimes that's all you can ask for.

China threatens dollar selloff

I used to think a Chinese selloff of the dollar was one of the scariest things that could possibly happen. And the possibility of it is still pretty scary.

But this action cannot happen in a vacuum. Right now, there are plenty of other factors that dissuade China from such irrational action.

The first is our involvement in Iraq. Contrary to the anti-war strawman set up by some in the media, we are not over there protecting our oil that God left under Iraqi sand. We are protecting China's oil and India's oil, which God left under Iraqi sand. Undermining the dollar could easily be construed to "undermining the war on terra", setting up China and the United States for near-immediate conflict. It just won't happen - the stakes are too high.

Our invasion nullified many of the contracts that China had forged with Saddam regarding oil production. They're just as eager to recoup some of this lost production as we are eager to get the hell out of there.

There are plenty of other cards on the table between our declining empire and China's rising empire. Taiwan, North Korea, piracy (which is only a big deal because of our powerful IP lobbies), the dollar/yuan issues, human rights, etc. are all on the table. Well, maybe except for the human rights thing - China isn't foolish, there are plenty of countries that have joined the global economy under one-party rule.

Northwest Division

Finally! Last stop on the NBA season preview express! The Northwest Division.

Utah Jazz. First off, congrats on finally getting out of the Northwest Division's cellar and becoming division champs. No, really, that's awesome. While Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer aren't quite on par with Stockton and Malone (yet), both young players show a lot of talent and poise. The Jazz also have a shutdown defender in AK47, and a big man whom you can't really classify (Okur). The biggest question mark with this team is how long is their window of opportunity going to stay open. 3 teams in their division are in all-out rebuilding mode, and two of those teams have the most highly-touted prospects since King James himself. Fortunately, they have the longest-tenured coach in the NBA, so he must be doing something right.

I think this team will compete for the division title once again this year, along with the Nuggets. The Jazz have their work cut out for them though - aside from the players already mentioned, they have few solid veterans outside of Matt Harpring. He won't be enough, but Deron appears to be a high-IQ basketball player, so if he and Boozer continue to develop chemistry, they will be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.

Denver Nuggets. George Karl has a tendency to wear out his welcome around his third season with a team, so we'll see how they react if they drop a few games near the beginning of the season. This team is fairly stacked, and has good depth surrounding its high-scoring combo of AI and Carmelo. Thinking long term though, they're not in a position to make many moves. They signed an injury-prone Kenyon Martin to a max deal and overpaid to retain Nene, so they may be looking to unload some salary unless they can win at least 50 games this year. This is a distinct possibility considering the weakness of the division this year, but they may not be so lucky in future seasons.

Seattle Supersonics. Hoo boy, here we go. There's so much to like with this team, but like all young teams, I don't see them competing right away. The drafting of Kevin Durant was huge, and to trade Ray Allen for the #5 overall pick (Jeff Green) was also a big move. Not only that, but they added PG Delonte West (underrated considering how bad the Celts have been) to back up Ridnour (who I'm also a big fan of), and Wally World.

Then, a month later, an almost bigger trade - they get the Suns 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010 and acquire Kurt Thomas in exchange for a second-round pick. WTF.

The Sonics also return Nick Collison, whose role was reduced with Rashard Lewis in the lineup, and have 3 very young (under 22) prospects at the center position from each of the previous 3 drafts. At least ONE of them has to make some progress, right?

Well, that said, rookies don't win games at this level, but this team does have some veterans to show leadership, and enough prospects to have a bright future. In fact, their current crop of youngsters is only matched by the...

Portland Trail Blazers. I would say that this team, as it currently stands, has even more potential than the Sonics. First off, they have Greg Oden, who is perhaps more ready to play in the NBA than Durant. They traded Zach Randolph to acquire Channing Frye (one of the few versatile threats the Knicks had) and to make room for PF LaMarcus Aldridge, last year's #2 pick overall. They've got 2007 Rookie of the Year SG Brandon Roy. They have a bonafide pass-first PG in Steve Blake, and a flashy backup PG named Sergio Rodriguez (in addition to NCAA champion PG Taurean Green and last year's starting PG, Jarrett Jack).

They also have 2 players who are just 2 years out of HIGH SCHOOL (Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw), and a couple of vets who are good players, but probably out the door (Miles and Pryzbilla). This team is bursting at the seams with young talent. It may take time, but Nate McMillan can get the job done with this group. Their potential is limitless, and this will be a fun team to watch, provided they can limit rookie mistakes.

Minnesota Timberwolves. KG is gone. Not cool. But since the rest of our division is rebuilding, I guess we'd better follow suit, eh?

So our new franchise player is Al Jefferson, who averaged 16s point and 11 rebounds per game last year, his 3rd as a pro (he was drafted out of high school). Technically, these are even better numbers than KG had at a similar point in his career. We also pick up PG streetballer Sebastian Telfair, who has had his share of trouble off the court, a high school phenom whose stock dropped in the draft 2 years ago (Gerald Green), and a Craig Smith style F in Ryan Gomes. Every publication is gushing over what a nice young man Gomes is, by the way. I've never seen him actually PLAY, but I'm glad we have a friendly guy on our roster, I think.

When you combine these players with our current young roster, it doesn't look half-bad. Foye had a great season last year, and Craig Smith was an absolute monster. Smith has lost some weight in the offseason and also had an outstanding summer league, so I'm expecting big things out of him. Add our lanky defender Corey Brewer with the #7 pick overall, and that's a pretty decent roster of youth.

Unfortunately, we've still got some bad apples on this squad. It's a contract year for Ricky Davis, so he'll be looking to score early and often. The lackadaisical defense of Davis really pissed me off last year, and I expect more of the same this year.

We're also saddled with another bad contract and general loafer in Mark Blount. A spot-up shooter trapped in a center's body, Blount simply cannot rebound the basketball and does little in the post. Word on the street is that his work ethic is questionable, and I don't want that kind of player around my youth movement at all.

My overall take on the Wolves this year has fluctuated from completely pessimistic (Seattle and Portland appear to have more talent), to optimistic (hey, our young talent has more experience than theirs!). At this point, it's going to be tough watching any basketball without KG. And don't get me started on the competency of our front office. But hopefully we'll sort out the good from the bad and this season won't be a complete wash. At the very least, we'll get to watch Oden and Durant progress as their teams destroy us.

Potentially awesome news

Wow. A milestone has arrived. That's right, it's my 500th post. Holy crap that's a lot of posts. I might throw myself a party, complete with streamers and ribbons and balloons and puppies.

Anyway, since we're on the topic of basketball, I'd like to point out that I have two favorite players in the entire world. One is Kevin Garnett. The second is Reggie Miller, who is retired.

They might be on the same team next year. I would have no choice but to purchase NBA League Pass to watch them. I'm trying not to be too excited about this, since it hasn't happened yet, but...THAT WOULD BE SO AWESOME

Southwest Division

I never thought I could get sick of writing about basketball, but I really want to finish this so I can write about other stuff. Maybe it will be good for me to plow through writing when I don't really feel like it...it may be somewhat less inspired, but like I said earlier, I want a record of what I was thinking going into the season to review later. Without further adieu - The Southwest Division!

New Orleans Hornets. Well, this team is moderately cursed by playing in a pretty tough division. They're another team with a good mix of prospects and vets, but aside from Chris Paul, I would call this team "nondescript". Paul brings energy and speed to this offense and is the main attraction when watching this team. They've added some good pieces via free agency over the last couple of years, with Tyson Chandler having a breakout season last year, and SG Morris Peterson joining the roster this year. Peja continues to be plagued by injury, but can still shoot lights-out when he's on the court. David West also has been coming into his own at the PF slot, but as I said before, there are no matchups or players who are nightmares for opposing teams.

The Hornets did okay in the draft, selecting Julian Wright, whose stock dropped throughout the season. Hopefully between him and Cedric Simmons, one of them will be able to come up big this year. Perhaps the veteran presence of Peterson and Bobby Jackson will be enough to drag this team to the playoffs, but I don't see much dramatic improvement here. Hilton Armstrong also needs to step up his game a notch after a disappointing rookie campaign.

Houston Rockets. After a disappointing first-round playoff exit, the Rockets are looking to rebound in more ways than one. They have ZERO serviceable power forwards, now that Juwan Howard is a Wolf. The rest of their pieces are nice - T-Mac is still an elite player, and Yao is finally living up to the massive hype that surrounded his entry into the league. Just goes to show that a little experience goes a long way. They also have Shane Battier, an excellent defender and team-oriented glue guy.

This team is also logjammed at the PG spot - Steve Francis, Mike James, Aaron Brooks (rookie who had a good summer league), Luther Head, John Lucas III, etc. - there's not enough playing time for all of them. I'm not sure if Stevie Franchise is the answer for this squad, but they're certainly in the market for a PF and could give up one of their many point guards for that spot. This team's biggest offseason acquisition was that of coach Rick Adelman, former coach of the Kings during their most recent heyday. I'm confident that he can at least bring this team back to the playoffs.

Memphis Grizzlies. This team finished with the worst record in basketball last year, yet only managed to get the 4th overall pick. However, this team is really starting to look intriguing, at least on paper. Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley Jr. are both PGs Memphis has selected in the first round, and Lowry only played 10 games last year due to a broken wrist. Memphis also signed permanent prospect Darko Milicic, who I've always thought could wind up similar to Pau Gasol - now they're on the same team, so that could create some mismatch possibilities.

Memphis also has some athletic 6'9" players who could easily be on the Atlanta Hawks - Rudy Gay, Stro Swift, and Hakim Warrick all have room to grow (maybe less so for Swift), and can provide a spark if this team gets stagnant. Add a shooter like Mike Miller, and a highly-touted international prospect like Juan Carlos Navarro, and this team has really turned it around this offseason. It's just a matter of seeing how well all these pieces fit together - I expect the Griz to hand over the keys to the NBA cellar to a new team this year.

Dallas Mavericks. How embarrassing. You finish with the best record in basketball, your best player wins the MVP and you lose in the first round of the playoffs. Fortunately, Mark Cuban is too smart to do much hand-wringing or hold a fire-sale, he's staying the course and this team retains the continuity that elite clubs need. Like the Spurs, there's not too much to say about these guys that hasn't already been written. Nowitski, Howard, and a boatload of roleplayers will continue to excel next season and give the Spurs and Suns a run for their money.

One note though: great draft for the Mavs. They had some second-round picks, and used them wisely on Reyshawn Terry and Nick Fazekas, both of whom I believe will play in the NBA for awhile. Getting two quality players in the second round is a coup, and goes to show you what scouting can do for a club - both players won't immediately produce, but they're good to have stashed away on your already-deep roster.

San Antonio Spurs. I can't remember where I read this, but there was an article online which discussed the philosophy of building a powerhouse. The GM of the Spurs basically said, "Get 3 stars who can flat-out play ball, and surround them with guys who will go through a wall to win." It works.

Like the Mavs, the Spurs weren't in a great draft position, yet managed to pick up two quality players in Tiago Splitter and Marcus Williams. I don't see this team dropping much next year - their big 3 are a year wiser, although the vets they are surrounded with have to be gasping for breath.

Evan has zines

2 pretty cool ones, might I add. Check them out (they're both PDFs, so you're warned):

Standard Deviation

Cheap Wisdom

Pacific Division

Okay, moving on to the Western Conference, which has enjoyed dominance in the past few years, first let's tackle...the Pacific Division!

Sacramento Kings. Remember the good ol' days? When it looked like my Timberwolves and the Kings would be meeting in the playoffs for years to come? Bibby and Jackson providing a 1-2 punch at PG, Vlade and later Brad Miller holding down the C position, Peja shooting lights out, Webber hobbling around, even Keon Clark providing matchup problems. And let's not forget Gerald Wallace was once with this squad. Well, Sacramento has also fallen from grace, and doesn't look to be improving anytime soon.

This year's Kings haven't done much in terms of personnel, so they're hoping their existing players can regain the form they've had in previous years. Bibby, Miller, and Ron Artest provide the backbone of this team, and undersized SG Kevin Martin has developed into quite a scoring threat. Abdur-Rahim still has a couple more years in him at the PF slot, making this team's front 5 look pretty good on paper. Unfortunately, they drafted a mediocre, unathletic freshman big man in Spencer Hawes. He should improve by going up against a vet like Brad Miller everyday in practice, but I don't see him contributing for a few years. This team really should've addressed their upcoming need at SF when Ron-Ron wears out his welcome or signs with the Knicks. This team will probably compete with the Clips for dead last in a weak division.

Los Angeles Clippers. Good thing I waited on this one - their superstar Elton Brand just did some damage to his Achilles and it doesn't sound too good. Promising 6'7" PG Shaun Livingston will probably miss the entire season after one of the most horrific injuries I have ever seen. Seriously, do NOT look for footage of it, it's sick. This is a fairly well-rounded team overall, but not having those two guys really hurts. Sam Cassell and Cat Mobley provide some veteran grit, C Chris Kaman is coming back from an off-year, and Corey Maggette can muscle his way to the basket and pour in some points.

The Clips also did well in the offseason, taking F Al Thornton with their pick and signing veteran PG Brevin Knight. Either way, this team needs to get healthy to compete, and Cassell isn't looking to just provide leadership for the young guys - he's a gamer who wants to win. I wouldn't be surprised if he wants out when this team starts to tank - playoff teams need a leader of his caliber, and I could see him as a Celtic or Cavalier by midseason.

Los Angles Lakers. The Kobe show rolls on, and he's been working through the media to demand a trade. Apparently he shines brighter than all the lights in LA, but I can't see the Lakers giving up on him - he sells too many tickets. He's actually got a half-decent supporting cast, with Lamar Odom's versatility and Luke Walton's, ummm...passing? Seriously though, I actually like Luke. They've added a couple of PGs - playoff vet Derek Fisher and rookie Javaris Crittenton, a flashy PG who will need time to develop before he can contribute.

This team is built on Kobe, and I do see them getting better next year, provided that Andrew Bynum continues to progress and bench guys like Turiaf and Radmonovic can provide a spark. This team will definitely make the playoffs and will likely get bounced in the first round, but you can never count Kobe out.

Golden State Warriors. I've always been a fan of Nellie ball. To me, the most exciting part of basketball is watching how mismatches are exploited, and Don Nelson shares this philosophy with me. None of this slow-tempo stuff where we watch slow centers post up and outmuscle each other in the paint. Nellie ball's more of a streetball mentality - pick on the defender who has the least ability to guard a certain player. It also allows for the best players to be on the floor playing together - when you've got Monta Ellis and Baron Davis out there at the same time, at least one of them will always be quicker to the hoop than their defender.

The Warriors should continue to have success this year, after knocking off #1 seed Dallas in the playoffs last year. Andris Biedrins should continue to thrive as a big man in this system, and Mickael Pietrus and Stephen Jackson can spread out the floor and are the type of players who thrive on mismatches. I didn't really like the move of trading Richardson for a big like Brandan Wright, though Wright should play better than he really is within this system. Expect to see this team in the playoffs once again - they're a tough matchup for any team and have some breakout potential this year.

Phoenix Suns. I don't know what to say about this team that hasn't already been said a million times. Steve Nash is one of the best PGs I've ever seen, he makes players around him better, and his supporting cast continues improve, adding Grant Hill this offseason. They've also got the fastest guy in the league (Barbosa), a KG-lite in Shawn Marion, and a beast in the low block (Amare). Surround them with versatile guys who have the drive to win (Diaw, Bell), and I expect them to win this division once again.

You can't argue with results, but Phoenix's front office is a little confusing - they're constantly trying to cut salary, but at the same time they give up their draft picks for almost nothing. Players on rookie contracts generally are the cheapest in the league, and they're all playing for that "next big deal". They even traded PF Kurt Thomas plus TWO first-round picks to the Sonics in exchange for a future second-round pick. Their philosophy is clearly not rookie-friendly, although I like the pickup of senior Alando Tucker from Wisconsin - he's the type of scoring SG that could help them. Last year they also signed perennial bust Marcus Banks to a 5-year deal, which may come back to haunt them later.

Atlantic Division

I know my discussion of basketball probably bores some of y'all, but it's more so I can look back later and see how wrong and shortsighted I was. And now, to finish of the Eastern Conference, I present: the Atlantic Division!

Philadelphia 76ers. For you non-hoops junkie out there, Philly no longer has Allen Iverson, who is still one of the most exciting players to watch in the NBA (he's with the Nuggets now). And since they traded their star, this team is has been sorely lacking in identity. They've got some good building blocks, but I expect them to remain in the cellar for most of the year. Their best player is the other AI - Andre Iguodala, an exciting swingman and spectacular dunker. He's only been in the league 3 years, so I expect him to continue to improve and be a mainstay of this franchise for years to come. Samuel Dalembert has shown flashes of being a defensive and rebounding monster, but doesn't have the hoops IQ to justify his enormous contract. They've also got a good, durable PG in Andre Miller, but his lack of range on his shot allows defenses to sag off him, limiting drive-and-kick opportunities for their slashers.

In the draft, the Sixers used their pick on Thad Young, a 6'8" lefty small forward from Georgia Tech. I don't expect him to contribute right away, as he's very raw - he's got good range on his shot, but is lacking in hoops IQ and will turn the ball over frequently. He has the tools to become a versatile threat, but needs to learn the ropes first. Not sure if he can get minutes, as this team has a logjam now at SF, with Iguodala, Korver, Jones, and Carney all competing for playing time. This team is a couple of rebuilding years away from challenging for the division title.

New Jersey Nets. This team's level of play surprises me every year, and this year will be no exception. Overrated dunkers Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter continue to have their careers extended by playing with Jason Kidd, who remains one of the top PGs in the league. However, this team has been in desperate need of an interior presence, and they attempted to fill that hole in the draft, taking troubled C Sean Williams. Williams was kicked off of Boston College for getting busted with pot (twice, if I remember correctly). Now, I'm sure he's not the only player in the NBA (or college) who smokes, but getting caught multiple times means you're either smoking too much, or you're just plain stupid. But then again, you've blocked 75 shots in 15 games before getting suspended, so here's a multi-million dollar contract! Don't spend it all in one place!

The Nets also will have Nenad Kristic back, who was out most of last season with an ACL injury. He's a 7-footer who was having a career year in terms of points and rebounds before the injury. He's got post moves and shooting range out to 20 feet - his offensive versatility makes up for his lack of strength on the boards and defensively. Sean Williams and Jamal Magloire should also help out with interior play, and I expect sophomore PG Marcus Williams to improve behind Jason Kidd. I expect this team to hover around .500 again this year, which is usually enough to compete for the Atlantic Division crown.

Toronto Raptors. The Raptors rebuilding process has been interesting to watch. What was once 4 guys watching Vince Carter play has now turned into a Who's Who of international players with talent. #1 pick overall last year Andrea Bargnani, a small forward trapped in a center's body, will continue to improve and eat up minutes, though he will need to work on his rebounding if he wants to stay on the court. Fortunately, he is flanked by All-Star Chris Bosh, whose skill-set has reminded many of KG. Too bad KG is in your division now, eh?

Other Raptors standouts include TJ Ford, a lightning quick PG who can get to the basket, but needs to work on his shooting. Toronto also has a stable of European players, and I'll admit to knowing almost nothing about them, so this team is truly a wildcard. Joey Graham, Luke Jackson, and Jason Kapono are all swingmen who will benefit from Ford's ability to get into the paint, and Bosh's ability to draw doubleteams. The European guys have experience, it's just a matter of whether this team will continue to jell after another season of playing together.

New York Knicks. Well, if one thing is consistent about the Knicks, it's this: once again, this team has the largest payroll in the NBA. This team usually looks good on paper, but for some reason, has been unable to play well as a team. Zach Randolph should help provide an interior presence alongside Eddy Curry, and Stephon Marbury has never met a shot he didn't like. Renaldo Balkman, last year's first round pick, is a solid defender and a hustle guy, but his shooting remains a question mark.

Honestly, I can't make heads or tails of this team. Sure, they got Randolph in the offseason, because it's not the Knicks unless you have a new franchise player every year. It's like they've assembled the greatest group of players who fill stat sheets, but have never played together with a winning club. Jared Jeffries, David Lee, Nate Robinson, Jamal Crawford are all guys who could get it done, but I foresee another year of mediocrity unless more is done to establish a pecking order among the guys. This team needs cohesiveness, and would benefit from some veteran leadership to go along with their individual talents.

Boston Celtics. Since this team still has some holes to fill, it's too early to give an accurate assessment of this team. But seriously - KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce should be enough to propel this team to the Eastern Conference Finals at the least. An injury to one of those three guys could spell disaster for this undermanned team. I'll write more about my new 3rd-favorite team (no one can replace my Pacers or Wolves) later when their roster is more filled out. They have to be seen as a top team for vets who want that ring, and want to prove they have something left in the tank. A Chris Webber, Dale Davis, Gary Payton, or Cliff Robinson would really help this team out.

Ha!

When insults had class...

Stuff from Tom

Since Thomas Barnett was kind enough to answer a question I emailed to him (regarding whether the bridge collapse might signify what he terms a rule set reset, after which priorities and outlook dramatically shifts), I'll be kind enough to link to some of his better stuff from the blog. Okay, it's not really out of kindness, but more out of my desire to post good info...

For starters, here's his bridge post, which I commented on. He doesn't think this will trigger any kind of significant response on a federal level, and I tend to agree with that...unless infrastructure starts failing across the board, of course. And I'm not talking just highways, but also electricity grids, dams, sewer, etc.

He also links to his Enterra teammate, whom I really need to link to on my sidebar soon, as he also comes up with good stuff on a consistent basis. Discusses seam states, as well as this little blurb on China which I agree with:

Don't believe? Then continue watching China's response to the tainted products scandals. China's response to that will do more to reform its system than probably every diplomatic initiative our government's collectively launched with Beijing over the past 20 years.

There is this constant bias within the national security community that we're the dog that wags the government tail and the government is the dog that wags the private-sector's tail when reality is exactly the opposite: the private-sector sets rules far more than the government (which works mostly the areas where conflicting rules bump into one another and harm society's collective goods as a result) and the national security community (whose rule sets take precedence in even fewer scenarios than the gover) is more a response to the government's response to private-sector initiatives than anything approaching a "driver." My community's megalomaniacal assumptions in this regard continue to stun me this deep into my career.

And just because it's good, here's a link to Tom's article in US News and World Report, entitled Managing China's Ascent. And here I thought we were a near-peer competitor!

Anyway, it was all good stuff to read, especially considering the amount of reading I've been doing on other stuff recently (slashdot, other geeky copyright stuff plus Britt's Wolves blog)

Ugh

This is the type of story I hate to see receive less coverage than I feel is necessary. Not to go all hippie on ya, but globalization is about reminding us that we're all brothers and sisters on this planet, and we're capable of extending a helping hand whenever others are in need.

Maybe I'm wrong

Contrary to reports from numerous sources, I really don't mind being wrong. Well, okay, I hate being wrong, but after sleeping on it, maybe I was wrong to judge the media coverage of the disaster in Minneapolis.

Sure, the media is focused on body counts and human interest stories, but I have a glimmer of hope that the media's intense stare can effect change (or is that "affect change"? I'm having a bad grammar day!). Infrastructure maintenance is, from a political standpoint, very unsexy, but is also very necessary to support our way of life.

Mary sent me a link to a Reuters article which actually did give me some hope. Hopes were dashed when I later read:

When Congress next rewrites the highway funding bill in 2009, "we're not going to settle for a bargain-basement transportation" policy, Oberstar said.

2009?? Are you serious? Not only that, but lawmakers only asked for $3 billion (and received slightly less, as is typical in budget negotiations) in the last highway bill. According to the article:

A 2005 report by the American Society of Civil Engineers gave the country's infrastructure an unacceptable D grade - almost failing. The group estimated the United States needed to spend US$1.6 trillion over five years to put its infrastructure into good shape.

$1.6 TRILLION over 5 years. That's like $320 billion per year. That's like having 8 more Iraqs. We can't even afford ONE IRAQ!

Bridges actually received comparatively high marks in the civil engineering report: an acceptable C grade, compared with D notes for the country's aviation system, dams, drinking water, electric power grid and hazardous waste system.

These are the things that we need to be worried about, I'm sorry to say. It's hard to win political points by funding these sorts of projects (aside from the fact that they're needed across the US, and create jobs), but it's needed. I mean, what happens when a dam blows or an urban area can't get drinkable water, due to "natural" causes (lack of upkeep) or God-forbid a terrorist attack? We are in big trouble, that's what - the cleanup costs far outweigh the preventative costs - compare it with seeing a doctor for a yearly checkup vs. waiting until you're in so much pain you need to go to the ER. In the short-term, the damage will be horrific, and in the long term, we're going to rapidly lose the economic prestige we so precariously cling to.

I don't want to drag the Bush Administration into this, but opportunity is usually presented in the form of a challenge. It's time to bite the bullet and create something along the lines of the WPA (it can even be private!) to combat this problem. Sure, you've gotta suck it up and accept government's role in funding this, but can it wait? I don't think so.

Somedays

Some days I'm really glad I work in an office which is completely sheltered from people. Most of the time it sucks, but some days it's good.

I really don't want to hear updates about every press conference, some hearsay about how many people were killed, speculation about how long recovery efforts will take, and especially some politicians score political points by demonstrating "leadership" by posturing on camera. Yes, it's terrible that a bridge collapsed, and it's awful that people lost their lives for no good reason. But does it really mean that Iraq is pushed completely off the front page of CNN.com for the first time in 4 years? Or does it just make more marketable news since it happened so close to home?

Of course I feel like a callous asshole just writing that last paragraph, but I don't know what else to say. It's certainly a tragedy, and I'm sure I would/will feel differently if anyone on that bridge was close to me, but...can we stop with the nonstop coverage? Do the first 8 CNN.com stories need to be related to this? There was nothing else remotely newsworthy that happened? Yes it sells papers and generates pageviews but just let the rescue workers do their job, get some answers as to how this happened, and stop exploiting the situation.

EDIT: I'm only picking on CNN.com because they're one of the largest 24-hour news presences. And I certainly understand that they would lose viewers to rivals if they didn't have round-the-clock coverage of this tragedy. I guess it's just one of those human-nature things that I don't understand...

holy fuck

35w just collapsed over the mississippi

Central Division

Ah, the Central Division. The division which I picked last year as the toughest in the league remains tough, but a couple of teams have been downgraded, such as my beloved Pacers. In fact, let's start with them:

Indiana Pacers. Some much needed housecleaning was done with this team last season, and I'm not sure if it really made the team all that much better. There are a few pieces here to work with (including a new coach who promises to play more uptempo, which should fit guys like Tinsley a bit better). Unfortunately, the Pacers lost their draft pick to ATL in acquiring Al Harrington last season.

Like the Timberwolves, I'm always optimistic about my Pacers. Sure they've got some dead weight (Dunleavy, Murphy), a hard-nosed defensive center(Foster), and an injury prone star (O'Neal). But they also have some young guys who show promise - Danny Granger (whom I wanted the Wolves to draft over McCants), David Harrison (coming off surgery), Ike Diogu, and Marquis Daniels all can find roles to play with this team. I just don't expect that role to be in the postseason quite yet, but we'll see - a new coach can work wonders for a team which never appeared to buy in to Carlisle's deliberate offense.

Milwaukee Bucks. Well, the Bucks certainly had a disappointing season, followed by what appears to be a disappointing draft. Who knew that the top Chinese prospect in the draft wouldn't want to play in Milwaukee? Oh, that's right - EVERYONE KNEW THAT. When Yi's handlers don't invite you to watch him scrimmage against a chair (for real), it means don't draft him. Hopefully they can get him signed and everything worked out.

Anyway, I'm taking a pass on the Bucks this year. Considering almost every one of their players was out for a significant amount of time last year, they never really got to jell. They re-signed Mo Williams, and Redd and Bobby Simmons remain dangerous scorers. Bogut and Villaneuva will also have the benefit of another year of experience, so only time will tell what this team can do. In some other divisions, this could be a borderline playoff club, but playing most of your games against the Bulls, Pistons, and Cavs really hurts in the loss column.

Cleveland Cavaliers. There is no way in hell this team makes it to the NBA Finals again without improving one iota in the offseason. I don't care how talented Lebron is, he doesn't have the talent around him to make it happen. Sure, they've got some good pieces (Gooden is an underrated replacement for the loss of Boozer, and Pavlovic is getting better as well), but you can't drag stiffs like Damon Jones and Eric Snow and expect to win. Yes, they're vets (I'm a big fan of experience over raw talent when it comes to the playoffs), but they just don't have enough in the tank to play with the likes of a Tony Parker or Steve Nash.

While most teams in the league got better over the offseason, this team did nothing, hoping to coast off LBJ's growing talent. They may win 50 games again, but you won't win a title watching Lebron go 1-on-5. This team needs to dump some dead weight and get another piece to the puzzle - Larry Hughes is not enough, even if he's paid like it. Also, you traded your first round pick for Jiri Welsch a few years ago?? Ouch.

Detroit Pistons. Everyone's favorite team without a star should be ready for another solid season next year. They've re-signed Billups, have plenty of veteran players who know their roles, and even have a few youngsters waiting in the wings. Billups, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace will continue to dominate the game, as these four players in particular not only play excellent defense, but also create mismatches on the offensive side of the ball, which creates many scoring opportunities.

I expect the Pistons to show a slightly different look this year - even if they keep vets like McDyess and Webber, this year's draftees Rodney Stuckey and Aaron Afflalo could see some playing time, Stuckey in particular. Also poised for breakout seasons are Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Amir was the last high school player ever picked in the draft, and just signed a new 3-year deal with Detroit, and averaged 4.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks in only 15 minutes of play.

Chicago Bulls. This is the team that finally made The Leap last year. With another season of improvement and no major personnel losses, the Bulls should continue to improve this year. They're deep at every position, have postseason experience, and have the right combination of youth and leadership to make a title run this year. Kirk Hinrich's progress has warranted him a spot on Team USA, and players like Nocioni and Sefolosha have more experience than their brief time in the NBA demonstrate.

I also think this could be a breakout year for F Tyrus Thomas. He doesn't really have much in the way of basketball instincts and fundamentals, but his pure athleticism means he can block shots and rebound fairly well. I think an offseason of basketball instruction combined with experience will really start to turn things around for him. And I didn't even mention the other big names on this squad - Deng, Wallace, and rookie Noah. Deng should also continue to improve, and Noah's intensity will prove many of the doubters wrong. Sure, he's not going to score 20 points per game, but neither does Big Ben, and I'd say he's had a successful career.

This year's Central Division:

1. Chicago
2. Detroit
3. Cleveland
4. Indiana
5. Milwaukee

Southeastern Division

One of my favorite blogs, TrueHoop, asked a boatload of bloggers what they think of the Eastern Conference. It certainly has improved by leaps and bounds across the board. Personally, I'm not exactly sold in the Celtics just yet. Doc Rivers is still their coach, and their depth chart no longer goes very deep. Yes, this team will make the playoffs with Ticket, but I don't see the supporting cast there. That said, here's my own breakdown of the Eastern Conference, starting with the Southeast:

Atlanta Hawks. It seems like every year, the Hawks target some 6'9" combo forward who can jump out of the gym. This year, they switched things up a bit and drafted a 6'10" power forward who can jump out of the gym AND appears to have a solid basketball IQ. It doesn't hurt that he was the go-to guy on a championship team either. With their second lottery pick, they went with Acie Law, a point guard out of Texas A & M who I really like. He's not super athletic, doesn't excel in any one area, but is a crafty player and a great competitor. The Hawks did quite well in the draft, which is fortunate considering their messed-up ownership situation will not allow them to sign any free agents.

Looks like another year of seasoning for the Hawks' lanky wingmen. Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams should continue to improve at that position, while Joe Johnson remains the star. If Shelden Williams and Horford can step it up, this team will be very entertaining to watch, but without a true leader, they'll continue to struggle. The Hawks will continue to be the NBA's official "development" team, and some team will overpay for their players in this coming offseason.

Charlotte Bobcats. Due to the newfound strength of the East, I'm hesitant to say this club is on the verge of a breakout season, but they've certainly got some pieces in place. Re-signing SF Gerald Wallace was huge, as a lot of teams were knocking on the door for this guy. 2005 Rookie of the Year Emeka Okafor continues to get rebounds at a breakneck pace, and he's quite an able shot blocker as well. As for last year's draft pick, Mustache Morrison, he had a very Dunleavy-esque rookie season, shooting under 40 percent from the floor and averaging less than 3 rebounds despite 30 minutes per night. Ouch.

This team did very well in the draft, swapping their pick, future bust Brandan Wright to the Warriors for the overrated scorer Jason Richardson. Richardson should play well with Raymond Felton, who has also improved considerably, averaging 7 assists per game last year. The Bobcats also picked up 2 favorites of mine entering the draft, tweener Jared Dudley from BC and Jermareo Davidson from Alabama. Both players made the Summer League All-Pro Second Team, and I expect the 'cats to improve from last year's 33-49 record.

Orlando Magic. This team only now strikes me from the deja vu aspect. Draft an insanely talented high schooler (Dwight Howard / KG), overpay for a one-dimensional shooter (Rashard Lewis / Wally), keep a good PG for a few years (Jameer Nelson / Cassell, Billups, Brandon), and surround with inadequate role players (Garrity, Dooling, Ariza / Kandi, Peeler, Hudson). Combine that with an ability to draft non-NBA-ready Duke players (Redick / Avery), and wow. I really don't see this team improving as much as they should. Rashard Lewis' contract will prevent this team from getting much better for awhile, though the warm weather might snare a solid veteran nearing the end of his prime.

This team is out in the first round of the playoffs, if they make it at all.

Miami Heat. This is what happens when you surround stars with role players - you win a championship, then you get blown out of the water when your stars go down. The ability of this team to do much of anything in the postseason relies on the health of Wade's shoulder and Shaquille's everything else. This team is now 2 years removed from a championship, and guys like Zo and J-Will are as vet-savvy as they're going to get - the only difference is the number of minutes left on their bodies.

I expect this team to take a step backwards this year. Though I liked the drafting of Cook from Ohio State, they negated that with the signing of Smush Parker from the Lakers. If Smush is the answer, you're probably not asking the right question. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team have a trade-deadine fire sale for a team needing "one more piece", and try to rebuild around Wade, Dorell Wright, and Cook.

Washington Wizards. My pick to win the division by a country mile. The Wiz were hit pretty bad by the injury bug last year, and I expect them to really bounce back and step it up this year. They've got the coolest quirky superstar in the league in Gil Arenas, and guys like Caron Butler, who is savvy beyond his years and always brings something to the table. Throw in Antawn Jamison (I wasn't a big fan of his game when he was forced to "star" on some teams, but I really like him as a glue guy), an underrated DeShawn Stevenson, and a young guy waiting to have a breakout season (Andray Blatche), and that's a potent recipe for success.

This team does need some interior help though - poet/anti-war activist Etan Thomas needs to stop fighting with Brendan Haywood, and I honestly don't like the drafting of Nick Young from USC. Sure he fills a need (scoring at the SG spot, as Gil is more of a combo guard), I just don't see him producing right away, and why would you leave your school early when OJ Mayo is coming? Don't want to share the limelight? Jarvis Hayes should have something to prove as well (assuming they re-sign him), as he was drafted pretty high in a deep 2003 draft class.

Well, that's the Southeast Division, and here's how it will all break down:

1. Washington
2. Miami
3. Charlotte
4. Orlando
5. Atlanta

Stay tuned for more!